How far can price move in 3 days
The expected 72-hour price range for BTC, ETH, SOL and 40 more coins — to place stops beyond the noise, size positions and leverage, and avoid unreachable targets. We do not guess direction: we measure risk, and every forecast is sealed and checked in public.
ATR shows how far price has moved. TPR shows how far it can move in 3 days.
How to read it: Bitcoin over the next 72 hours
BTC page →Inside so far: from the issue price, price reached +2.00% and −0.01% (bound ±4.08%)
White tick — price at issue, yellow — price now, the strip under the bar — where price has already been. A forecast is issued every 3 days at 01:00 UTC for the next 72 hours; periods run back to back. Price bounds never change after issue, and at the end the forecast is checked against Binance candles.
Updated forecast for 12.10 03:00 UTC:
±3.8% (80595.31 – 86996.49)
Calm — recalculated every hour from the current price, for entering right now; the calculator and touch chances use it. Every hourly forecast is sealed too.
Inside the 80% range in 24 of 29 checked periods · tap any column to open that forecast above
Wide band — TPR80, the 80% range. Within 72 hours price leaves it in about 1 case in 5. The place for a stop and the ceiling for a target.
Narrow band — TPR50, the 50% range. The typical move: price leaves it in about half of cases. A stop inside it is a stop on noise.
Regime Calm — where the coin’s current volatility sits among its own values over 180 days. Expansion and Extreme are a reason to size down.
Position calculator
based on the active TPR-72 periodHow it works: the stop and target sit on the edges of the active period — the same forecast shown on the coin page; its price bounds never change. Position size comes from the distance between the current price and the stop, so that hitting the stop costs exactly the risk you set. The touch chance is measured from the current price over the hours left in the period: if price has already moved toward an edge, it is higher than at issue. Leverage above the shown maximum puts liquidation (isolated margin) closer than the stop. This is a calculation, not trading advice.
Why traders use it
A stop that noise does not hit
BTC’s normal 3-day move is now ±2.6%. A stop at that distance gets touched within 72 hours in 25% of cases, even when the idea is right. A stop 3.8% away is touched in only 10%.
Position size from risk
Set how much you are willing to lose — say 1% of the deposit. The calculator sizes the position so that a stop beyond the normal move costs exactly that.
Leverage without early liquidation
If BTC can travel ±3.8%, leverage above 21× puts liquidation closer than a normal market move — the exchange closes you out before your stop.
Realistic targets, different coins
A take-profit beyond the 80% edge is rarely reached within 3 days. And coins differ: right now TRX is ±2.2%, BTW ±40.3% — the same position size carries 18× different risk.
Risk across all coins
widest range first; open a coin to see how its past forecast was checked| Coin | Price | 80% | 80% range | 50% | 50% range | Regime | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTW Bitway | 1.6584 | ±40.3% | 0.98959 – 2.3272 | ±19.3% | 1.3388 – 1.9780 | Calm | — |
| ORCA Orca | 2.3510 | ±21.0% | 1.8565 – 2.8455 | ±12.5% | 2.0570 – 2.6450 | Extreme | 77% |
| TIA Celestia | 0.58510 | ±20.6% | 0.46435 – 0.70585 | ±13.2% | 0.50769 – 0.66251 | Extreme | 82% |
| NEAR Near Protocol | 5.8470 | ±19.0% | 4.7377 – 6.9563 | ±11.5% | 5.1741 – 6.5199 | Expansion | 79% |
| ENA Ethena | 0.23984 | ±17.6% | 0.19772 – 0.28196 | ±10.9% | 0.21368 – 0.26600 | Expansion | 82% |
| UNI Uniswap | 7.6700 | ±17.2% | 6.3532 – 8.9868 | ±9.5% | 6.9398 – 8.4002 | Expansion | 73% |
| AERO Aerodrome Finance | 0.93100 | ±17.1% | 0.77142 – 1.0906 | ±10.2% | 0.83614 – 1.0259 | Expansion | 79% |
| ARB Arbitrum | 0.19447 | ±16.4% | 0.16254 – 0.22640 | ±10.0% | 0.17504 – 0.21390 | Expansion | 78% |
| ATOM Cosmos | 1.9070 | ±15.5% | 1.6118 – 2.2022 | ±9.6% | 1.7240 – 2.0900 | Extreme | 75% |
| ZEC Zcash | 1276.98 | ±14.9% | 1086.77 – 1467.19 | ±9.4% | 1157.24 – 1396.72 | Normal | 82% |
| BONK Bonk | 0.0034680 | ±14.6% | 0.0029630 – 0.0039730 | ±8.6% | 0.0031682 – 0.0037678 | Normal | 76% |
| ONDO Ondo | 0.51710 | ±14.5% | 0.44216 – 0.59204 | ±9.1% | 0.46984 – 0.56436 | Normal | 82% |
| ICP Internet Computer | 3.4660 | ±14.4% | 2.9672 – 3.9648 | ±8.5% | 3.1729 – 3.7591 | Expansion | 81% |
| OP Optimism | 0.14094 | ±14.3% | 0.12084 – 0.16104 | ±9.4% | 0.12765 – 0.15423 | Expansion | 80% |
| GALA Gala | 0.0024280 | ±14.2% | 0.0020832 – 0.0027728 | ±8.7% | 0.0022161 – 0.0026399 | Expansion | 78% |
| CC Canton Network | 0.12651 | ±13.7% | 0.10918 – 0.14384 | ±8.3% | 0.11607 – 0.13695 | Expansion | 77% |
| SPX SPX6900 | 0.38440 | ±13.6% | 0.33213 – 0.43667 | ±9.1% | 0.34954 – 0.41926 | Normal | 85% |
| VET VeChain | 0.0079190 | ±12.5% | 0.0069269 – 0.0089111 | ±8.2% | 0.0072723 – 0.0085657 | Expansion | 74% |
| KAS Kaspa | 0.04174 | ±12.2% | 0.03663 – 0.04685 | ±7.6% | 0.03855 – 0.04493 | Expansion | 76% |
| SEI Sei | 0.06983 | ±12.2% | 0.06133 – 0.07833 | ±7.3% | 0.06474 – 0.07492 | Expansion | 80% |
| SUI Sui | 1.1176 | ±12.1% | 0.98202 – 1.2532 | ±7.4% | 1.0346 – 1.2006 | Normal | 82% |
| ALLO Allora | 0.24634 | ±12.1% | 0.21660 – 0.27608 | ±7.5% | 0.22776 – 0.26492 | Calm | 74% |
| RENDER Render | 1.9830 | ±11.5% | 1.7550 – 2.2110 | ±7.3% | 1.8392 – 2.1268 | Normal | 80% |
| ADA Cardano | 0.25000 | ±11.5% | 0.22126 – 0.27874 | ±7.1% | 0.23223 – 0.26777 | Normal | 76% |
| LINEA LINEA | 0.0030660 | ±11.3% | 0.0027200 – 0.0034120 | ±7.6% | 0.0028328 – 0.0032992 | Expansion | 79% |
| BCH Bitcoin Cash | 285.36 | ±11.1% | 253.83 – 316.89 | ±6.3% | 267.29 – 303.43 | Normal | 79% |
| AVAX Avalanche | 10.8630 | ±10.3% | 9.7450 – 11.9810 | ±7.0% | 10.0998 – 11.6262 | Expansion | 78% |
| POL Polygon Ecosystem Token | 0.10279 | ±10.1% | 0.09245 – 0.11313 | ±6.9% | 0.09571 – 0.10987 | Expansion | 74% |
| HBAR Hedera Hashgraph | 0.09375 | ±9.8% | 0.08453 – 0.10297 | ±6.0% | 0.08815 – 0.09935 | Expansion | 75% |
| LINK Chainlink | 13.3620 | ±9.7% | 12.0679 – 14.6561 | ±6.1% | 12.5484 – 14.1756 | Normal | 76% |
| XLM Stellar | 0.20139 | ±9.3% | 0.18268 – 0.22010 | ±6.0% | 0.18934 – 0.21344 | Normal | 81% |
| XMR Monero | 533.77 | ±8.9% | 486.52 – 581.02 | ±5.3% | 505.27 – 562.27 | Normal | 75% |
| XRP XRP | 1.4065 | ±8.8% | 1.2830 – 1.5300 | ±5.3% | 1.3323 – 1.4807 | Normal | 76% |
| SHIB Shiba Inu | 0.0054750 | ±8.4% | 0.0050158 – 0.0059342 | ±5.5% | 0.0051725 – 0.0057775 | Normal | 79% |
| DOGE Dogecoin | 0.08696 | ±8.1% | 0.07993 – 0.09399 | ±5.2% | 0.08247 – 0.09145 | Normal | 79% |
| LTC Litecoin | 64.9000 | ±8.0% | 59.7078 – 70.0922 | ±5.1% | 61.5828 – 68.2172 | Expansion | 72% |
| HYPE Hyperliquid | 86.9230 | ±7.8% | 80.1463 – 93.6997 | ±5.3% | 82.3587 – 91.4873 | Calm | 85% |
| SOL Solana | 111.99 | ±7.0% | 104.17 – 119.81 | ±4.7% | 106.78 – 117.20 | Normal | 81% |
| GRAM Gram (prev. Toncoin) | 1.4410 | ±7.0% | 1.3404 – 1.5416 | ±4.8% | 1.3721 – 1.5099 | Normal | — |
| ETH Ethereum | 2546.40 | ±5.6% | 2403.43 – 2689.37 | ±3.5% | 2458.56 – 2634.24 | Calm | 76% |
| BNB BNB | 754.60 | ±4.9% | 717.90 – 791.30 | ±3.1% | 731.48 – 777.72 | Calm | 77% |
| BTC Bitcoin | 83795.90 | ±3.8% | 80595.31 – 86996.49 | ±2.6% | 81596.65 – 85995.15 | Calm | 78% |
| TRX TRON | 0.33050 | ±2.2% | 0.32317 – 0.33783 | ±1.4% | 0.32576 – 0.33524 | Calm | 74% |
Sealed Track Record · why you can trust these numbers
A risk estimate is easy to fake after the fact. So every forecast is recorded before the outcome, sealed, and checked after 72 hours against open Binance candles — misses stay in the score too.
A spike or crash inside the window cannot be predicted
TPR measures a coin’s normal swing. A market-wide move — news, a regulator’s decision, a liquidation cascade — is not visible in advance in any indicator: we tested dozens. In a normal 3 days 85% of coins stay inside the 80% range, and about once every 3 weeks the market makes a joint move and almost everything breaks the bounds at once.
Each bar is one 72-hour window; height is how many of the 44 coins stayed inside the 80% range (dashed line — 80%). Red bars are market-wide moves. Over 90 days: 917 of 1204 (76%).
- Always use a stop. The 80% bound protects from noise, not from a market-wide move.
- Ten altcoin longs are one position. In a joint move every stop fires at once — count risk as a total.
- Size from risk, leverage with room. Then a joint move costs a known amount, not the deposit.
Latest checked forecasts
How to verify →Forecasts of 09.10 03:00 UTC, checked 12.10 03:00 UTC: inside the 80% range — 37 of 42.
| Coin | Price at forecast | 80% range | Actual: up / down | Allowed | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LINEA | 0.0026600 | 0.0023712 – 0.0029488 | +15.41% / −0.83% | ±10.86% | ✗ broke out |
| OP | 0.12199 | 0.10100 – 0.14298 | +20.89% / −0.88% | ±17.21% | ✗ broke out |
| GRAM | 1.3870 | 1.2675 – 1.5065 | +10.09% / −0.72% | ±8.62% | ✗ broke out |
| ICP | 3.0000 | 2.5414 – 3.4586 | +17.40% / −2.47% | ±15.29% | ✗ broke out |
| NEAR | 4.6790 | 3.5180 – 5.8400 | +27.46% / −1.11% | ±24.81% | ✗ broke out |
| TIA | 0.51620 | 0.39458 – 0.63782 | +22.67% / −10.62% | ±23.56% | ✓ inside |
| ATOM | 1.8350 | 1.5513 – 2.1187 | +13.57% / −0.98% | ±15.46% | ✓ inside |
| ARB | 0.17508 | 0.14244 – 0.20772 | +16.03% / −0.19% | ±18.64% | ✓ inside |
| AERO | 0.85130 | 0.68149 – 1.0211 | +16.60% / −7.04% | ±19.95% | ✓ inside |
| ENA | 0.21132 | 0.16965 – 0.25299 | +15.40% / −0.47% | ±19.72% | ✓ inside |
The other coins (32)
| ADA | 0.23390 | 0.19849 – 0.26931 | +10.90% / −0.13% | ±15.14% | ✓ inside |
| ONDO | 0.47340 | 0.38304 – 0.56376 | +12.44% / −0.95% | ±19.09% | ✓ inside |
| GALA | 0.0022420 | 0.0018022 – 0.0026818 | +11.91% / −2.27% | ±19.61% | ✓ inside |
| XLM | 0.19347 | 0.17273 – 0.21421 | +6.46% / −1.16% | ±10.72% | ✓ inside |
| XMR | 543.50 | 492.38 – 594.62 | +1.02% / −5.55% | ±9.40% | ✓ inside |
| AVAX | 10.2740 | 8.9090 – 11.6390 | +7.34% / −1.62% | ±13.29% | ✓ inside |
| SUI | 1.0500 | 0.88405 – 1.2160 | +8.71% / −0.21% | ±15.80% | ✓ inside |
| BTC | 82083.50 | 78063.05 – 86103.95 | +2.55% / −0.09% | ±4.90% | ✓ inside |
| RENDER | 1.8770 | 1.5802 – 2.1738 | +7.72% / −2.08% | ±15.81% | ✓ inside |
| POL | 0.09891 | 0.08659 – 0.11123 | +5.86% / −1.83% | ±12.46% | ✓ inside |
| KAS | 0.03945 | 0.03402 – 0.04488 | +6.34% / −0.28% | ±13.76% | ✓ inside |
| SEI | 0.06685 | 0.05684 – 0.07686 | +6.87% / −2.96% | ±14.97% | ✓ inside |
| LINK | 12.7730 | 11.2049 – 14.3411 | +5.49% / −0.71% | ±12.28% | ✓ inside |
| ETH | 2488.13 | 2308.44 – 2667.82 | +3.04% / −0.62% | ±7.22% | ✓ inside |
| BNB | 739.90 | 692.86 – 786.94 | +2.55% / −0.47% | ±6.36% | ✓ inside |
| ZEC | 1211.21 | 991.29 – 1431.13 | +7.23% / −1.26% | ±18.16% | ✓ inside |
| BONK | 0.0032920 | 0.0026693 – 0.0039147 | +6.90% / −0.27% | ±18.91% | ✓ inside |
| SHIB | 0.0053450 | 0.0048008 – 0.0058892 | +3.70% / −0.51% | ±10.18% | ✓ inside |
| UNI | 7.3260 | 5.7386 – 8.9134 | +7.74% / −1.35% | ±21.67% | ✓ inside |
| DOGE | 0.08473 | 0.07583 – 0.09363 | +3.41% / −1.16% | ±10.51% | ✓ inside |
| CC | 0.12156 | 0.10163 – 0.14149 | +5.32% / −4.28% | ±16.39% | ✓ inside |
| HYPE | 84.8600 | 77.1683 – 92.5517 | +2.85% / −1.75% | ±9.06% | ✓ inside |
| SPX | 0.36870 | 0.30685 – 0.43055 | +5.07% / −1.98% | ±16.78% | ✓ inside |
| ORCA | 2.4520 | 1.6701 – 3.2339 | +7.01% / −9.62% | ±31.89% | ✓ inside |
| VET | 0.0077490 | 0.0065894 – 0.0089086 | +4.46% / −1.72% | ±14.96% | ✓ inside |
| LTC | 63.4400 | 57.4614 – 69.4186 | +2.60% / −0.72% | ±9.42% | ✓ inside |
| TRX | 0.33196 | 0.32375 – 0.34017 | +0.35% / −0.68% | ±2.47% | ✓ inside |
| BCH | 276.65 | 234.54 – 318.76 | +4.15% / −1.71% | ±15.22% | ✓ inside |
| HBAR | 0.09122 | 0.07854 – 0.10390 | +3.66% / −2.12% | ±13.90% | ✓ inside |
| SOL | 110.25 | 100.50 – 120.00 | +2.25% / −1.67% | ±8.84% | ✓ inside |
| XRP | 1.3910 | 1.2459 – 1.5361 | +2.52% / −1.27% | ±10.43% | ✓ inside |
| ALLO | 0.24663 | 0.21032 – 0.28294 | +3.03% / −2.99% | ±14.72% | ✓ inside |
Misses come first, then the coins where price came closest to the edge.
Sealed Track Record · how to verify the forecast and the verdict
- The forecast is recorded before the outcome. Every hour the forecasts for all coins are added to the journal and sealed: a SHA-256 hash is taken of that hour’s lines together with the previous hour’s seal. This forms a chain — no past forecast can be changed without breaking every seal after it. Once a day the seal is anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain and in our Telegram channel.
- The whole journal is public. Every forecast is in the open journal: the seal chain and in daily files /forecast/log/YYYY-MM-DD.jsonl — the lines exactly as they were sealed. Misses are never removed.
- The verdict uses open data. After 72 hours we take the hourly Binance futures candles — the same any trader sees. A hit counts only if every high and low of all 72 candles stayed inside the range.
- Check it yourself. Download verify.py (about 40 lines, no dependencies) and run it: python3 verify.py recomputes the whole chain, and python3 verify.py BTCUSDT 2026-10-07T10:00 recomputes one forecast’s verdict straight from Binance candles.
Timestamps outside our server
Once a day the latest seal is anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps and posted to our Telegram channel. Nothing can be written there retroactively. To check: drop the .txt and .ots files on opentimestamps.org — it shows the Bitcoin block the seal is anchored in.
Hit rate by regime
80% · 50%The target is 80% and 50%. In calm markets the model slightly overrates the calm; in violent ones it holds.
Hit rate by month, 80% range
Months with sharp market-wide crashes score lower: such a crash is not visible in advance in a coin’s volatility. We show it as it is.
Methodology
- Volatility — ATR of hourly Binance futures candles over 14 hours and 7 days (geometric mean), with a floor in quiet periods: 85% of the usual 30-day level.
- Calibration — per coin, over its last 180 days: the 80th and 50th percentiles of the 72-hour move relative to volatility. Only windows closed before the forecast.
- A hit — only if all 72 hourly candles stayed fully inside the range. The formula was fixed on 04.10.2026 and is not tuned.
Live journal: 4521 checked forecasts, 60.0% stayed inside the 80% range, 21.5% inside the 50% range. Same formula tested on history: 35,270 forecasts, hit rate 78.1% and 51.6%. Not investment advice.
What this tool does not do
- It does not forecast direction. Only the size of the move: nobody knows where price goes next — we tested it.
- It does not predict a spike or crash inside the window. A sharp market-wide move is not visible in advance — on such days almost every coin breaks the range at once (see how it looks).
- It gives no guarantees. 80% means 80%: one time in five price leaves the range, most often in market-wide crashes.
- It is not an entry signal. It is a risk estimate for a decision you make yourself.
FAQ
How is this useful for a trader?
It is a risk-management tool. It shows how far a coin's price usually travels in 3 days and helps you place a stop beyond market noise, size a position from the risk you accept, pick leverage that will not liquidate you before your stop, and avoid targets that are almost unreachable within 3 days. The calculator on this page does all of that for you.
What is CL True Path Range (TPR-72)?
It is an estimate of the path price can travel over the next 72 hours. The name echoes ATR (Average True Range): ATR shows how far price has already moved, TPR shows how far it can move, counting every high and low of the hourly candles, not just the close. For every coin we compute a range that price will stay inside with 80% probability over three days, and a narrower range with 50% probability. Direction is not forecast — only the size of the move.
How is the range calculated?
We take the coin’s current volatility: the average true range (ATR) of hourly Binance futures candles over 14 hours and over 7 days, with a floor for quiet periods. Then we look at how far this coin’s price travelled within 72 hours in the past at similar volatility, over the last 180 days. The range is recalculated every hour.
The forecast is recalculated every hour — so how can it be checked?
Every hour a new forecast for the next 72 hours appears, and past ones are never overwritten. Each forecast is written to the journal, sealed with a hash and checked separately after 72 hours against Binance candles. The coin page shows the verdict on the forecast made exactly 72 hours ago, and the whole sealed journal is open for download and independent verification.
How accurate is the forecast?
Every forecast is recorded and checked automatically after 72 hours. The hit rate is published on this page as it is, misses included. On history the 80% range held price in about 78% of cases and the 50% range in about 51%. The forecast is weakest on days of sharp market-wide crashes.
What do Calm, Normal, Expansion and Extreme mean?
They show where the coin’s current volatility sits among its own values over 180 days. Calm is the bottom quarter (a quiet market), Normal is the middle, Expansion is above-normal volatility, Extreme is the top 15% — the coin is moving violently.
Why does almost every coin sometimes break the range at once?
Because a sharp market-wide move inside the window cannot be predicted. TPR measures each coin’s normal swing, while news, a regulator’s decision or a liquidation cascade are not visible in advance in volatility or volume. We tested dozens of features — none predicts such moves better than a coin flip. In a normal 3 days almost 9 of 10 coins stay inside the 80% range, and about once every 2–3 weeks the market makes a joint move and almost everything breaks the bounds at once. That is why a stop is always needed, and several same-side positions across altcoins should be counted as one big position.
How can I use the range in trading?
Price leaves the 50% range on one side or the other in about half of cases. A stop sits on one side only, so price reaches the 50% edge less often — about one case in four — and the 80% edge about one case in ten. The exact chance of touching any level is shown on the coin page and in the calculator. A target beyond the 80% edge is rarely reached within three days. The range width helps choose position size and leverage. It is a reference tool, not a trading signal.
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