Take-profits are usually set "at a round number" — +10%, +20% — or at "three to one" from the stop. Then you watch price turn around before reaching the target. We measured, across 44 coins, how far price really travels in a day, three days and a week — so the target is reachable, not a dream.
How far price actually travels
For every hour over 230 days we checked whether price reached +X% from entry in the right direction. That is the chance a take-profit at that distance fires — if the direction was right and the stop did not interfere.
| Target | BTC, 24h | BTC, 3 days | BTC, 7 days | Alt, 3 days | Alt, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2% | 28% | 54% | 69% | 72% | 83% |
| +3% | 14% | 36% | 54% | 60% | 74% |
| +5% | 4% | 15% | 30% | 40% | 58% |
| +10% | 0.1% | 2.2% | 6.6% | 12% | 27% |
| +20% | 0% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 7.3% |
Within 3 days Bitcoin moves no further than 2.2% in one direction half of the time, no further than 4.2% in 80% of cases, no further than 7.6% in 95%. A +10% target in three days on Bitcoin is reached in 2.2% of cases — that is a lottery, not a plan.
Why the take-profit "almost got hit" and price turned
If the target is further than the coin normally travels during the trade, most trades end not at the target but at the stop or a manual exit on the pullback. You see profit, wait for the target — and price comes back. Not bad luck: the target sat where price goes one time in ten.
Where to place the take-profit: inside the real range
TPR-72 shows the range price stays inside over 72 hours with ~80% and ~50% probability. For a target, that is the edge of realistic:
Right now Bitcoin's 50% bound is ±2.7%, its 80% bound ±3.9%. A target at the 50% bound is reached within 72 hours in about 25% of cases, at the 80% bound in about 10%. A target beyond the 80% bound in three days is unlikely.
- Target inside the 50% range — reached often, but the profit is small.
- Target between 50% and 80% — a sensible balance for a multi-day trade.
- Target beyond 80% — possible, but then hold longer (a week instead of three days) or take part of the position earlier.
Partial exits and time
A good technique is to split the exit: close part at the 50% bound, hold the rest to the 80% bound or until the trade's time limit. And set a time limit: if price has not moved toward the target in three days, the idea most likely failed — the money just sits idle.
Target and stop are linked: why "1 to 3" guarantees nothing by itself — see "The 1:3 risk-reward myth".
What no calculation protects you from
About once every 2–3 weeks the whole market makes a joint move — news, a regulator’s decision, a liquidation cascade. On such days almost every coin breaks its range at once. Such a move cannot be predicted in advance — we tested dozens of features. That is why a stop is always needed, and several same-side positions across altcoins are one big position. See how it looks.
Checklist: take-profit
- The target is inside the coin's real range for the trade horizon, not a "round +10%".
- For a distant target — a longer horizon or a partial exit.
- There is a time limit: if it did not work in the allotted time, exit.
- Targets for Bitcoin and altcoins differ: volatility differs several-fold.
Method. Hourly Binance USDT-M futures candles for 44 coins over the last 230 days. A window starts at every hour; "price reached the level" means at least one candle touched it with its high or low. Longs and shorts are counted together. "Typical altcoin" is the median across all coins. This describes the past market, not a promise about the future.
Check your own trade
The TPR-72 calculator shows a stop beyond the noise, position size from your risk, safe leverage and the chance price reaches your level. Free, no sign-up.
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Where should I set a take-profit in crypto?
Inside the range the coin actually travels during the trade. For a 3-day trade — between the TPR-72 50% and 80% bounds. A target beyond the 80% bound is rarely reached in three days.
What take-profit should I use for Bitcoin?
Right now Bitcoin's 72-hour 50% bound is about ±2.7%, its 80% bound ±3.9%. Over 230 days Bitcoin moved no further than 2.2% in one direction within 3 days half of the time.
Why doesn't price reach my take-profit?
Usually the target is further than the coin normally travels during the trade. For example, +10% within 3 days on Bitcoin happened in only 2.2% of cases.
Should I take profit in parts?
Yes, it is a good approach: part of the position is closed at a near, realistic target, the rest runs to a further one. Profit is locked more often while a big move is still possible.