Liquidation is not bad luck. With leverage, the liquidation price sits at a known distance — the only question is how often the market gets there. We measured it across 44 coins over 230 days: at what leverage liquidation is rare, and at what leverage it is routine.
Where the liquidation price is
On isolated margin the exchange closes the position when the loss eats almost all of its margin. Roughly: at 10× — a move of about 9–10% against you, at 20× — 4.5–5%, at 50× — 1.8–2%. The exact value depends on maintenance margin and fees, but that is the order of magnitude.
Then a simple question: how often does price travel that far against you while the trade is open? We counted conservatively: a move of 90% of (100% ÷ leverage) counts as liquidation.
Liquidation odds by leverage: the data
| Leverage | Liquidation | BTC, 3 days | BTC, 7 days | ETH, 3 days | Alt, 3 days | Alt, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3× | ≈30% | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 3.1% |
| 5× | ≈18% | 0.3% | 2% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 8.7% |
| 10× | ≈9% | 2.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 16% | 32% |
| 20× | ≈4% | 18% | 35% | 29% | 44% | 61% |
| 50× | ≈1.8% | 58% | 72% | 67% | 75% | 84% |
| 100× | ≈0.9% | 78% | 86% | 83% | 88% | 92% |
- 3–5× on Bitcoin — liquidation is practically ruled out over a few days.
- 20× is no longer "aggressive but fine". On an altcoin it liquidates almost every second position within 3 days (44%), 61% within a week.
- 50–100× is not trading, it is a bet. Normal noise closes the position even if you got the direction right.
Leverage is not the risk — position size is
A common confusion: "I use 20×, so I risk 20 times more". No. Risk is how much you lose when the stop fires, which depends on position size and stop distance. Leverage only decides how much margin the position locks — and where liquidation is.
Hence the main rule: liquidation must be beyond the stop, with room — beyond the level price can normally reach. Otherwise the exchange closes you before your stop fires, and you lose more than planned.
What leverage is safe right now
Safe leverage changes with volatility. TPR-72 computes it so that liquidation sits beyond the 80% bound (with a 10% buffer and maintenance margin):
| Coin | 3-day 80% bound | Leverage up to |
|---|---|---|
| BTC | ±3.9% | 21× |
| ETH | ±5.6% | 14× |
| SOL | ±7.0% | 12× |
| ORCA | ±26.6% | 3× |
Live numbers as of the data date. Current values for any of 44 coins are in the TPR-72 calculator.
Note the difference between coins: the same leverage on Bitcoin and on a volatile altcoin is a completely different liquidation risk.
Isolated or cross margin
On cross margin liquidation moves further away — the whole free balance backs the loss. It feels safer, but one bad position can take the whole account, not just its own margin. For trades with a stop, isolated margin is more reliable: one position's loss is capped, and you know exactly where it liquidates.
What no calculation protects you from
About once every 2–3 weeks the whole market makes a joint move — news, a regulator’s decision, a liquidation cascade. On such days almost every coin breaks its range at once. Such a move cannot be predicted in advance — we tested dozens of features. That is why a stop is always needed, and several same-side positions across altcoins are one big position. See how it looks.
Checklist: leverage before entry
- Stop first (beyond the normal move), then position size from risk, and only then leverage.
- Liquidation beyond the stop and beyond the TPR 80% bound.
- Isolated margin for each position.
- Above 20× on altcoins only if you consciously accept liquidation as a normal outcome.
Method. Hourly Binance USDT-M futures candles for 44 coins over the last 230 days. A window starts at every hour; "price reached the level" means at least one candle touched it with its high or low. Longs and shorts are counted together. "Typical altcoin" is the median across all coins. This describes the past market, not a promise about the future.
Check your own trade
The TPR-72 calculator shows a stop beyond the noise, position size from your risk, safe leverage and the chance price reaches your level. Free, no sign-up.
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What leverage should a beginner use on futures?
One that keeps liquidation beyond both the stop and the normal price move. For Bitcoin that is currently up to 21×, for volatile altcoins much less. Over 3 days 3–5× almost never liquidates, while 20× on an altcoin liquidates nearly every second position.
How do I avoid liquidation on Binance?
Put the stop before liquidation, size the position from risk, use isolated margin and choose leverage so liquidation is beyond the normal price move for the trade horizon.
At what price move does liquidation happen?
At roughly 100% ÷ leverage against the position minus maintenance margin: about 9–10% at 10×, 4.5–5% at 20×, about 2% at 50×.
Does leverage increase risk?
Not by itself: risk is set by position size and the stop. Leverage determines locked margin and where liquidation is. It becomes dangerous when liquidation is closer than the stop.