"How much can Bitcoin drop over the weekend?", "where will price go by the end of the week?" — nobody knows the direction, and we do not guess it. But "how far" has an honest, numerical answer. Here is how far Bitcoin travelled within 3 days over the last 230 days — and the range calculated right now.
Bitcoin's range for the next 72 hours
This is a live TPR-72 widget: the forecast is issued every three days at 01:00 UTC, sealed, and checked in public after 72 hours. As of the data date price is 82,994, the 80% range 79,789 – 86,199, the 50% range 80,790 – 85,198.
How much Bitcoin moves in 3 days: history
For every hour over 230 days — how far price travelled in one direction over the next 72 hours:
| In what share of cases | Move no more than |
|---|---|
| 50% | ±2.2% |
| 80% | ±4.2% |
| 90% | ±6.1% |
| 95% | ±7.6% |
| 99% | ±12.6% |
So half of the time Bitcoin moves no more than 2.2% within three days, and only one time in a hundred more than 12.6%. The largest 3-day move among forecast windows over 90 days is about 14.7% (window starting 20.08).
Recent forecasts and what actually happened
| Start | Price | 80% bound | Actual: up / down | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.09 | 85,855 | ±5.5% | +1.6% / −3.5% | inside |
| 25.09 | 84,561 | ±5.4% | +0.8% / −1.7% | inside |
| 28.09 | 84,092 | ±4.2% | +1.8% / −1.9% | inside |
| 01.10 | 83,460 | ±5.0% | +4.5% / −0.4% | inside |
| 04.10 | 84,757 | ±4.0% | +2.6% / −0.1% | inside |
| 07.10 | 85,501 | ±3.8% | +0.0% / −6.0% | broke out |
Every forecast is recorded before the outcome and checked in public — misses stay in the score. How to verify it yourself.
How to use it
- Stop — beyond the 80% bound so normal noise does not hit it (why).
- Target — inside the range: price rarely goes beyond the 80% bound in three days (data).
- Leverage — so liquidation is beyond the 80% bound: currently up to 21× for Bitcoin (details).
- Position size — from risk and stop distance (formula).
What no calculation protects you from
About once every 2–3 weeks the whole market makes a joint move — news, a regulator’s decision, a liquidation cascade. On such days almost every coin breaks its range at once. Such a move cannot be predicted in advance — we tested dozens of features. That is why a stop is always needed, and several same-side positions across altcoins are one big position. See how it looks.
What this forecast does not do
It does not say whether price goes up or down and is not an entry signal. It shows the range — how far price can travel in 72 hours — so stop, target and size are calculated, not guessed.
Method. Hourly Binance USDT-M futures candles for 44 coins over the last 230 days. A window starts at every hour; "price reached the level" means at least one candle touched it with its high or low. Longs and shorts are counted together. "Typical altcoin" is the median across all coins. This describes the past market, not a promise about the future.
Check your own trade
The TPR-72 calculator shows a stop beyond the noise, position size from your risk, safe leverage and the chance price reaches your level. Free, no sign-up.
Open the calculator →Telegram botFAQ
How much can the Bitcoin price change in 3 days?
Over the last 230 days, half of the time Bitcoin moved no more than 2.2% in one direction within 72 hours, no more than 4.2% in 80% of cases, no more than 7.6% in 95%. The current 80% range is ±3.9%.
Is there a 3-day Bitcoin price forecast?
We do not forecast direction. TPR-72 gives the range price stays inside with ~80% and ~50% probability; every forecast is sealed and checked in public after 72 hours.
How accurate is the range forecast?
For Bitcoin price stayed inside the 80% bound in 24 of the last 29 three-day windows. Misses happen mostly in market-wide moves, which cannot be predicted.
How do I use the range in trading?
Stop beyond the 80% bound, target inside the range, leverage so liquidation is beyond the 80% bound, position size from risk.