TPR-72 shows how far a coin's price can move over the next 72 hours — in either direction. It does not say where price will go. It is a risk-management tool: it helps you set stop, target and leverage so that normal market noise does not knock them out. Here is how to use it properly, step by step.
How to read the TPR block
The block on a coin page and on /forecast/ holds two forecasts — the period forecast and the hourly update. Keep them apart.
| Element | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 72h period | Issued every 3 days at 01:00 UTC, periods run back to back. Price bounds do not change within a period |
| TPR80 | The whole 72h price path, wicks included, stays inside in about 80% of cases |
| TPR50 | The same for 50% — the "normal" move zone |
| Regime | Calm / Normal / Expansion / Extreme — volatility vs. the coin's usual level |
| Period status | Active · active, already missed · checked: inside or broke out |
| Updated forecast | Recomputed hourly from the current price — for entries mid-period or after a breakout |
Rule 1. The stop goes beyond the noise
Put the stop at the TPR80 bound or slightly beyond. A stop inside TPR50 gets hit by ordinary swings even when you are right about direction.
| Stop placement (one side) | How often price reaches it within 72h |
|---|---|
| Inside TPR50 | more than 1 in 4 — noise |
| At the TPR50 bound | about 1 in 4 |
| At the TPR80 bound | about 1 in 10 |
The "50%" and "80%" in the band names refer to leaving the range in either direction. A stop sits on one side only, so it gets hit less often.
If a stop at TPR80 feels too far, do not pull it closer — reduce the position size. The market sets the width of risk; you control the dollar loss.
Rule 2. The target is no further than TPR80
A move to the TPR50 bound is normal for three days, to TPR80 is a good outcome, beyond is rare. A take-profit beyond TPR80 on a 72h horizon is more hope than plan (the data).
- Conservative target — the TPR50 bound in the trade's direction.
- Maximum reasonable target — the TPR80 bound.
- Beyond TPR80 — only if you will hold longer than three days and re-plan on the next period.
Rule 3. Size and leverage come from the distance to stop
leverage ≤ 1 ÷ (h80 × 1.1 + 0.5%)
First decide how much you are willing to lose (usually 0.5–2% of the deposit), then compute size. Leverage is chosen so liquidation stays beyond the stop; the 1.1 multiplier and 0.5% are a buffer for slippage and exchange margin (more on size, on leverage).
Live example: a BTC long
Deposit $5,000, risk 1% = $50. Numbers come from the current forecast and refresh daily.
| Step | What to do | BTC now |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Read the bands and regime | price 82,680, TPR50 ±2.8%, TPR80 ±4.1%, regime Calm |
| 2 | Stop just beyond the lower TPR80 bound | 79,172 (−4.2%) |
| 3 | Target: TPR50 or TPR80 bound | 84,982 (+2.8%) or 86,030 (+4.1%) |
| 4 | Size: $50 risk ÷ distance to stop | ≈ $1,178 |
| 5 | Leverage: 1 ÷ (h80 × 1.1 + 0.5%) | up to 20× |
| 6 | Touch chance within 72h | stop ≈ 9%, target 1 ≈ 26%, target 2 ≈ 10% |
Result: a stop-out costs exactly $50, target 1 earns ≈ $33, target 2 ≈ $48 (before fees). Leverage only changes how much margin the position takes, not the risk.
Touch chance: check your own stop and target
Touch chance is the probability that price reaches a level at least once within 24 or 72 hours. Across 44 coins its error is 1–3 percentage points.
- Enter your stop. Above 30% for the trade horizon means the stop is in the noise: move it out and cut size.
- Enter your target. Below 20% means the target is unlikely within that time.
- Remember: the chance counts up and down moves together; your edge comes only from your choice of direction.
Market regime
| Regime | What to do |
|---|---|
| Calm | Narrow bands, stops survive longer. But quiet often ends in a sharp move: about 75% inside TPR80 here |
| Normal | Follow rules 1–3 as is |
| Expansion | Wider bands: stop further, size smaller, leverage drops by itself |
| Extreme | Minimum size or pause: about 82% inside, but the moves are large |
Common mistakes
- Reading the bands as a signal. Price at the lower bound is no reason to buy. Bands are not support or resistance.
- A stop inside TPR50 — knocked out by noise.
- A target beyond TPR80 on 72h — the trade more often times out or reverses.
- Sizing by feel — one stop eats several wins.
- Mixing up the period and hourly forecasts. The period is for a 3-day plan; the hourly one is for entries mid-period or after a breakout.
- Holding on old levels after the period ends — after 72h recompute stop and target.
What no calculation protects you from
About once every 2–3 weeks the whole market makes a joint move — news, a regulator’s decision, a liquidation cascade. On such days almost every coin breaks its range at once. Such a move cannot be predicted in advance — we tested dozens of features. That is why a stop is always needed, and several same-side positions across altcoins are one big position. See how it looks.
What TPR does not do
Across 44 coins the 72h price path stayed inside TPR80 in 78.1% of cases and inside TPR50 in 51.6%. The indicator does not forecast direction, does not see news and does not predict market-wide jolts. The formula is fixed and not refit; every forecast is sealed with a sha256 chain and anchored daily in the Bitcoin blockchain — log and verification script.
Pre-entry checklist
- Direction chosen by your strategy, not by where price sits in the bands.
- Stop at the TPR80 bound or beyond.
- Target no further than TPR80.
- Touch chance of the stop below 30%.
- Size = risk ÷ distance to stop.
- Leverage no higher than 1 ÷ (h80 × 1.1 + 0.5%).
- Size reduced in Expansion and Extreme.
- Period broken — levels from the updated forecast.
- Stop placed on the exchange.
Check your own trade
The TPR-72 calculator shows a stop beyond the noise, position size from your risk, safe leverage and the chance price reaches your level. Free, no sign-up.
Open the calculator →Telegram botFAQ
What does the TPR-72 indicator show?
The range in which a coin's price will spend the next 72 hours with 80% and 50% probability. It does not forecast direction — only the size of the move.
Where should I put a stop with TPR-72?
At the TPR80 bound or slightly beyond. Price reaches such a stop in about 1 of 10 cases within 3 days; a stop at the TPR50 bound — about 1 in 4.
Can I buy at the lower TPR bound?
The bound itself is not a signal: bands are not support levels. TPR helps you set stop and target; your strategy decides direction.
How often is TPR-72 wrong?
Across 44 coins the price path stayed inside TPR80 in 78.1% of cases. It does worst during market-wide jolts, roughly every 2–3 weeks.